CINCINNATI — The Bearcats needed a remarkable comeback to remain unbeaten last week. Against Kansas State on Saturday night, they would be wise to skip that part of the script.

Cincinnati opens Big 12 play at Nippert Stadium with both teams at 3-0. UC erased a 21-point halftime deficit to beat Miami (Ohio) 35-31, while Kansas State arrives after a 31-20 win over Tulane. The Wildcats are favored by 6.5 points, making this Cincinnati’s first game of the season in which they will be the underdog.

The Bearcats know what happens when Kansas State controls the ground game. In their 2024 meeting, the Wildcats rushed for 281 yards on the way to a 41-15 victory. Avery Johnson ran for 72 yards and a touchdown that night, and he remains the player UC must account for on every snap. Through three games this season, Johnson has thrown for 618 yards and six touchdowns while adding 253 rushing yards and three scores.

That puts a great deal of responsibility on Cincinnati’s defensive front. The line needs to be gap sound to keep Johnson and the running backs from finding easy lanes and to give the rest of the defense a chance to rally when Johnson moves.

Cincinnati can help its defense by keeping the ball. The Bearcats average 269.7 rushing yards per game, with Gi’Bran Payne, Cole Tabb and JC French IV each contributing at least 140 yards and two touchdowns this season. Sustained drives would limit Johnson’s chances to turn a broken play into a long gain. They would also spare UC from asking its defense to survive one possession after another against a dangerous quarterback.

Running the ball will be harder against Kansas State than it was in Cincinnati’s first three games. The Wildcats have allowed 96 rushing yards and 182.7 total yards per game, and their defense has recorded 30 tackles for loss. French may have to create something when a play breaks down, but he cannot afford to force throws against a defense allowing fewer than 87 passing yards per game.

Players to Watch

• The Defensive Line — Sound technique matters as much as pressure against Johnson. Cincinnati’s linemen must stay in their gaps and contain the edge without opening a lane through the middle. That discipline could also prevent a repeat of 2024, when Kansas State’s running game took over.

• Gi’Bran Payne — Payne has already delivered two 100-yard rushing games in his first season with the Bearcats. His value Saturday goes beyond his final yardage total: steady carries and manageable third downs can keep Kansas State’s offense waiting, and wasting away on the sideline.

• JC French IV — French has completed 76.5 percent of his passes and has yet to throw an interception. Kansas State’s front will test how well he responds when the planned play disappears. A few timely escapes, whether for first downs or to extend passing plays, could make the difference in an upset.  A big game from their quarterback will go a long way toward whether the Bearcats can pull off the upset.

Game Information

Notes

• Cincinnati is 3-0 for the first time since 2021. A win would give the Bearcats their first 4-0 start since that season.

• This is Kansas State’s first road game under new head coach Collin Klein.

• UC defensive coordinator Nate Woody coached Army’s defense in its 24-21 win over Kansas State last season. Army held the Wildcats to 48 yards after halftime and largely contained Avery Johnson.

• The Bearcats have won 40 of 56 home night games since 2006. Saturday is their second Nippert at Night game this season.

Prediction

Kansas State has the defense to make Cincinnati work for every yard, and Johnson is capable of ruining a good defensive series with one run. The Bearcats will need a much steadier start than they had against Miami, and they must limit mistakes.

The path is there if UC protects the ball, runs well enough to control the pace and makes Johnson earn his yards rather than handing him escape lanes. French’s legs give Cincinnati another answer when Kansas State wins up front. At Nippert, that may be just enough.

Cincinnati 31, Kansas State 28