COLUMBUS — At some point, close has to become good enough.
The Columbus Blue Jackets have spent the last two seasons playing meaningful hockey deep into April, which is certainly preferable to spending the final month examining draft lottery odds. Both seasons, however, ended the same way: close to the playoffs, but not actually in them.
Columbus finished 40-30-12 last season, placing fifth in the Metropolitan Division and missing the postseason by seven points. It marked the sixth consecutive year without playoff hockey at Nationwide Arena.
There were stretches when the Blue Jackets looked ready to end that drought. After Rick Bowness replaced Dean Evason in January, Columbus won 19 of its first 27 games under its new coach. Then, with a postseason berth within reach, the Jackets collapsed—losing nine of their final 11 games.
That finish led Bowness to deliver a blunt offseason assessment: Losing didn’t bother this team enough.
Well, we’re about to find out whether that message landed.
A Different-Looking Team
The Blue Jackets allowed former captain Boone Jenner to leave for Washington, ending his 13-season run in Columbus. Mason Marchment also departed in free agency, while the organization added Ryan Lomberg and acquired Valeri Nichushkin from Colorado.
Nichushkin is the biggest addition. The 6-foot-4 winger produced 17 goals and 49 points in 72 games last season and brings speed, size, postseason experience and badly needed help on special teams. He should receive an opportunity alongside Adam Fantilli and Kirill Marchenko on Columbus’ top line—provided the Jackets resolve the rather important matter of signing Fantilli, who remained a restricted free agent when training camp opened.
Lomberg is not an offensive star, but he plays with precisely the edge Bowness wants. He is physical, irritating and accustomed to the expectations accompanying a contender.
In other words, he is here to make losing considerably less comfortable.
Columbus also re-signed Cole Sillinger to a three-year contract worth $4.625 million annually. Sillinger tied his career high with 33 points last season, but eight goals from a former No. 12 overall pick entering his sixth NHL campaign simply isn’t enough. The Blue Jackets need more than responsible two-way play. They need him to become a legitimate offensive contributor.
The Core Is Good Enough
For all the frustration surrounding this franchise, Columbus possesses legitimate star power.
Zach Werenski won the Norris Trophy after recording 22 goals and 81 points in 75 games. He led the Blue Jackets in scoring for the second consecutive season and averaged 26:37 on the ice. Trade speculation followed him into the offseason, but Werenski remains in Columbus—and the organization’s path toward relevance still runs directly through him.
Marchenko led the team with 27 goals, while Fantilli scored 24. Kent Johnson, Dmitri Voronkov and Denton Mateychuk remain young enough to improve, and Luca Del Bel Belluz should receive a legitimate opportunity after producing 58 points in 55 games with Cleveland last season.
The Jackets are not waiting for an entire generation of prospects to arrive. Most of the young core is already here.
Now it has to grow up.
The Questions That Could Decide Everything
Columbus’ special teams must improve. The Blue Jackets ranked 22nd on the power play at 18.9 percent and 28th on the penalty kill at 76 percent. For a team living near the playoff bubble, giving away that much ground in high-leverage situations is an excellent way to schedule tee times in April.
Goaltending is the other concern.
Jet Greaves established himself as the starter by going 26-19-9 with a 2.60 goals-against average and .908 save percentage across 55 games. The Blue Jackets will need him to prove he can handle that workload again.
Elvis Merzlikins is out indefinitely after undergoing shoulder surgery, prompting Columbus to sign 39-year-old Cam Talbot to a one-year, $950,000 contract just before camp opened. Talbot brings 567 games of NHL experience, although he posted a .894 save percentage during his two seasons in Detroit.
The Jackets do not necessarily need elite goaltending. They just can't afford bad goaltending.
Prediction
This should be a playoff team.
There is enough scoring, enough young talent and one of the best defensemen on Earth patrolling the blue line. Nichushkin improves the top six, and a full season under Bowness should create more consistency than Columbus displayed last year.
But “should” has done a lot of work around this franchise.
The special teams remain concerning, the goaltending lacks certainty and Fantilli’s contract must be resolved. The Metropolitan Division will not provide much room for another slow start or late collapse.
Still, the Blue Jackets have reached the point where development can no longer be the primary objective. It is time to win.
Prediction: 43-30-9, 95 points and the second Eastern Conference wild-card berth.
Anything less than postseason hockey should be considered a failure.
