COLUMBUS — Ohio State has enough talent to win every game left on its schedule. The Buckeyes can overwhelm teams with Jeremiah Smith, pressure quarterbacks with a deep defensive front and beat opponents in enough different ways to survive an imperfect afternoon. Their greatest danger may be the one weakness entirely within their control: when Ohio State needs two or three yards on the ground, those yards have been surprisingly difficult to find.
The Numbers Are the Warning
Through three games, Ohio State has converted only four of 11 third- or fourth-down plays requiring three yards or fewer. That is a 36.4 percent success rate in situations designed to favor the offense. The problem was impossible to miss in the 59-3 win over Kent State. Ohio State faced six short-yardage opportunities and converted one. A blowout allowed everyone to laugh it off by the fourth quarter, but the same failures in a one-possession Big Ten game would be the entire story.
The Kent State sequence included a two-yard Bo Jackson run on third-and-goal from the 3, an Isaiah West loss on third-and-1, a Julian Sayin incompletion on fourth-and-2, a one-yard Ja’Kobi Jackson run on third-and-goal from the 2 and another West loss on third-and-3. The only conversion was Ja’Kobi Jackson’s one-yard touchdown on fourth-and-goal. Ohio State had five chances to gain three yards or fewer and failed before finally punching in that score on the sixth opportunity.
Good Rushing Numbers Can Hide the Problem
The Buckeyes are averaging 4.6 yards per carry, which ranks 64th nationally, and 158.7 rushing yards per game, which ranks 79th. Those are not disastrous figures, but they are ordinary numbers for a program with Ohio State’s talent and ambitions. They also do not answer the most important question. A 20-yard run on first down is useful; gaining one yard when the defense knows exactly what is coming is a different test of leverage, pad level, blocking assignments and determination.
Ohio State has shown that it can win that test. Sayin scored on a three-yard fourth-down run against Ball State. West broke a 10-yard gain on fourth-and-1, Bo Jackson converted a third-and-3 with a six-yard run and Ja’Kobi Jackson scored from the 1 against Kent State. The successful snaps make the failures more frustrating because this is not a roster physically incapable of moving the line. The Buckeyes simply have not done it consistently.
The Bison Package Cannot Be the Entire Answer
Ohio State leaned on its Bison package against Kent State, inserting Jake Cook as a sixth offensive lineman for three rushing touchdowns while the starters were in the game. That package has value, especially near the goal line, and there is nothing wrong with making the defense deal with additional size. It cannot become a rescue device needed every time the offense requires one yard. The regular five-man line, backs and tight ends must be able to create movement without announcing a specialty formation and inviting every defender toward the football.
Why It Matters Now
The 24-23 loss at Texas already demonstrated how thin the margin can become against a comparable opponent. One failed fourth down can remove at least three points. One stuffed third-and-1 can force a punt, protect the opposing defense from another series and swing field position. Against Kent State, Ohio State had enough advantages to keep getting the ball back and scoring anyway. Illinois, Iowa and the rest of the Big Ten schedule will not all provide that luxury.
That is why the short-yardage issue is Ohio State’s biggest flaw. Other weaknesses can be covered by superior players. Smith can erase a mistake in coverage. The defense can bail out a stalled drive. Sayin can create an explosive pass when the running game produces nothing. But championship teams eventually reach a moment when creativity is no longer the point. Everyone in the stadium knows a run is coming, the offense needs one yard and the better team has to take it.
Ohio State begins Big Ten play Saturday against Illinois with every major goal still available. The Buckeyes do not need to reinvent the offense, and three early games are not a permanent verdict on the line or running backs. They do need to treat 4-for-11 as an alarm rather than an odd statistic from September. This roster is good enough that most opponents will need help to beat it. Ohio State cannot keep providing that help one failed yard at a time.
