CINCINNATI — There probably aren't many teams in college football happier to see West Virginia on their schedule than the Cincinnati Bearcats.
After opening the season with four consecutive victories, Cincinnati's offense came crashing back to earth in a 34-7 loss to Arizona on October 3. The Bearcats managed just 227 total yards, struggled to establish their running game, and repeatedly squandered opportunities to put points on the scoreboard.
Fortunately for Cincinnati, its next opponent has had considerably more trouble stopping opposing offenses than Arizona.
West Virginia enters Saturday's matchup allowing 460.8 yards and 32.7 points per game, ranking last in the Big 12 in both categories. The Mountaineers have lost three consecutive games, surrendering 41 points to Oklahoma State, 45 to Iowa State, and 52 to Arizona.
For a Cincinnati team looking to regain its offensive confidence, that's a pretty welcoming set of statistics.
A Favorable Matchup on the Ground
Before its disastrous trip to Tucson, Cincinnati had established one of the nation's most productive rushing attacks. The Bearcats entered the Arizona game averaging approximately 270 rushing yards per contest, using the combination of Gi'Bran Payne, Cole Tabb, and quarterback JC French IV to create problems for opposing defenses.
Arizona brought that production to a screeching halt, holding Cincinnati to just 74 rushing yards on 28 carries. The Wildcats consistently disrupted blocking assignments and prevented the Bearcats from developing any rhythm.
West Virginia's defense hasn't demonstrated the same ability to stop the run.
The Mountaineers rank last in the Big 12 in rushing defense, allowing 163.8 yards per game. Cincinnati, even after its struggles against Arizona, ranks 12th nationally with 230.8 rushing yards per contest and has scored 17 touchdowns on the ground.
Payne and Tabb have provided the foundation for that production, giving Cincinnati two capable running backs who can wear down defenses and create opportunities for explosive plays. Tabb has been particularly effective, averaging 9.7 yards per carry, the second-highest mark in the Big 12.
Saturday offers an opportunity for the Bearcats to get back to what they were doing well during the first four games of the season.
However, favorable statistics don't automatically translate into success. Cincinnati still needs its offensive line to execute, and Scott Satterfield must be willing to make adjustments if West Virginia commits additional defenders to stopping the run.
Opportunities Should Be There Through the Air, Too
West Virginia's defensive problems aren't limited to stopping the run.
The Mountaineers are allowing 297 passing yards per game, giving opposing quarterbacks plenty of opportunities to move the football. Through six games, West Virginia has struggled to prevent explosive plays and consistently get opposing offenses off the field.
That creates an interesting opportunity for French, whose passing game was largely ineffective against Arizona.
Cincinnati has relied heavily on its rushing attack, but a functioning passing game is necessary to prevent defenses from simply loading the box. If the Bearcats can establish Payne and Tabb early, French should have opportunities to attack a West Virginia secondary that has struggled throughout the season.
The key will be taking advantage of those opportunities rather than forcing difficult throws or abandoning the running game prematurely.
Cincinnati doesn't need French to throw for 350 yards. It needs him to make good decisions, complete manageable passes, and punish West Virginia when the Mountaineers overcommit to stopping the run.
The Bearcats Cannot Afford Another Offensive Collapse
West Virginia's defensive struggles make Saturday an attractive matchup, but Cincinnati shouldn't mistake that for a guaranteed victory.
The Mountaineers have one of the nation's most productive rushing offenses, averaging 295.5 yards per game. Running back Cam Cook and quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. are both capable of taking advantage of Cincinnati's defensive weaknesses.
That means the Bearcats cannot afford another afternoon of wasted scoring opportunities.
Against Arizona, Cincinnati failed to capitalize on an early interception by MJ Cannon, with Stephen Rusnak missing a 53-yard field goal attempt. The Bearcats later drove 86 yards to the Arizona 2-yard line, only to turn the ball over on downs when French's fourth-down pass to Gavin Grover fell incomplete.
Those missed opportunities helped turn what could have been a competitive game into a blowout.
The Bearcats need to finish drives, protect the football, and avoid putting additional pressure on their defense.
West Virginia has surrendered at least 40 points in every conference game this season. Cincinnati should be capable of generating scoring opportunities against that defense, particularly if its running game returns to form.
Whether the Bearcats take advantage of those opportunities will help determine if the Arizona performance was simply a bad afternoon or a sign of more serious offensive problems.
Cincinnati travels to Morgantown on Saturday, October 17, for a noon ET kickoff against West Virginia.









