CINCINNATI — If you looked at the statistics from Sunday's Hell is Real derby without knowing the final score, you would probably assume FC Cincinnati won comfortably. The Orange and Blue controlled 66.2% of possession, outshot Columbus 24-4, and put eight shots on goal.
Instead, the Columbus Crew walked out of TQL Stadium with a 2-0 victory, scoring on both of their shots on target while goalkeeper Patrick Schulte turned away everything Cincinnati sent his way.
The numbers tell an interesting story about two teams that approached the match very differently. Cincinnati controlled the ball and generated chances, but Columbus made the most of its limited opportunities and did enough defensively to preserve the shutout.
Possession Doesn't Guarantee Goals
Cincinnati attempted 596 passes compared to just 276 for Columbus, completing 89.3% of them. The Crew finished with 76.5% passing accuracy and held possession for barely a third of the match.
Those numbers suggest Cincinnati controlled much of the action, and in terms of possession and attacking opportunities, it did. But having the ball and putting it into the net are two different things.
The Orange and Blue generated 1.9 expected goals, a measure of the quality of their scoring opportunities. Columbus finished with just 0.3 expected goals, yet scored twice.
Cincinnati certainly had opportunities to score, but its finishing was poor, and Schulte made sure the mistakes were costly. The Crew goalkeeper finished with eight saves, keeping Cincinnati off the scoreboard despite facing far more pressure than his counterpart, Roman Celentano.
Columbus Makes Its Chances Count
The Crew didn't need many opportunities to put Cincinnati away.
Gonzalo Tapia opened the scoring in the 22nd minute, heading home a corner kick from Brais Méndez. It was another frustrating goal for Cincinnati to concede, particularly given the club's recurring problems defending headers and set pieces. And considering FCC was playing a man down with Malacia off the pitch dealing with an injury.
Columbus doubled its advantage in the 54th minute when Columbus native Taha Habroune finished an attacking move, with Tapia and Santiago Rodríguez providing the assists.
Those were the Crew's only two shots on target all evening, and both found the back of the net.
Columbus wasn't creating chance after chance, but it finished the opportunities it had. Cincinnati, meanwhile, continued generating shots without finding a breakthrough.
Defense and Goalkeeping Make the Difference
The most interesting part of Columbus' performance may have been how the Crew handled Cincinnati's pressure.
Cincinnati wasn't completely shut down offensively. The Orange and Blue produced 24 shots and eight attempts on target, so suggesting Columbus prevented them from creating opportunities would be inaccurate.
What the Crew did well was limit the damage when Cincinnati created opportunities, with Schulte providing the saves needed to preserve the shutout. The defenders in front of him also stepped in to challenge shots and disrupt attacks.
Cincinnati's inability to score contributed to the growing frustration visible on the field, particularly from Evander late in the match. The Orange and Blue kept searching for an opening, but nothing seemed to work.
Columbus, on the other hand, remained composed and avoided the defensive mistakes that might have allowed Cincinnati back into the game. The Crew's composure made it seem like, even though FC Cincinnati controlled possession and had more shots, they were playing their game the entire time.
Two Different Problems to Solve
For Columbus, Sunday's victory provides another example of a team finding ways to win. The Crew won't always be able to rely on scoring twice from two shots on target, but the combination of timely finishing and strong goalkeeping was enough to win the derby.
For Cincinnati, the numbers are much more frustrating. Generating 24 shots and nearly two expected goals should give a team a reasonable chance to score, but the Orange and Blue couldn't finish any of their opportunities.
The Crew leave Cincinnati with three points, another victory over their biggest rival, and renewed playoff hopes. Columbus now sits just one point behind the Orange and Blue for the final Eastern Conference playoff spot, giving Sunday's victory importance well beyond Ohio bragging rights.
