CLEVELAND — The Cleveland Guardians were just two victories away from the World Series entering Saturday night's game against Tampa Bay. Now, after a disappointing 7-3 loss, the Guardians find themselves in a much more precarious position.
The American League Championship Series is tied 2-2, and Sunday's Game 5 at Progressive Field could go a long way toward determining which team represents the American League in the World Series.
Cleveland will send rookie left-hander Parker Messick to the mound against Tampa Bay right-hander Drew Rasmussen, setting up an intriguing matchup between two of the American League's best starting pitchers.
Messick enjoyed an outstanding rookie regular season, finishing 12-9 with a 2.56 ERA. But his postseason performances have been less impressive. Through three playoff starts, he's 0-2 with a 3.09 ERA, having allowed seven runs, four earned, in 11? innings.
The Guardians desperately need Messick to deliver a strong outing Sunday, particularly after relying heavily on their bullpen during Saturday's loss. Cleveland used seven pitchers in Game 4, and another early exit from its starter could place additional pressure on an already taxed pitching staff.
Tampa Bay counters with Rasmussen, who went 16-5 with a 2.67 ERA during the regular season. The right-hander has been even better in the postseason, entering Sunday with a 1-0 record, 1.29 ERA, and 17 strikeouts.
For Cleveland's offense, finding a way to generate runs against Rasmussen will be a challenge.
The Guardians managed just three runs Saturday, with two coming during a seventh-inning rally after Tampa Bay had already built a four-run advantage. Travis Bazzana provided a spark with his first postseason home run, while Brayan Rocchio added an RBI single, but Cleveland couldn't sustain its comeback, nor anything else offensively.
José Ramírez, Cleveland's most dangerous offensive weapon, went hitless in Game 4. The Guardians need their All-Star third baseman to return to the form he displayed earlier in the postseason, when he helped lead the team back from a two-game deficit against the Chicago White Sox in the Division Series.
Cleveland also needs better execution in the field. Chase DeLauter's seventh-inning error Saturday allowed Jonathan Aranda to advance to third after driving home two runs, helping Tampa Bay extend its lead.
The Rays, meanwhile, arrive Sunday with renewed confidence after scoring seven runs against Cleveland's pitching staff. Aranda drove in three runs, while Yandy Díaz delivered a two-run homer in the ninth inning to put the game out of reach.
Tampa Bay has also shown an ability to generate offense without relying on home runs. The Rays have used timely hitting, aggressive baserunning, and pressure on opposing defenses to create scoring opportunities throughout the series.
For the Guardians, Sunday's game is an opportunity to regain control before the series returns to St. Petersburg.
A victory would give Cleveland a 3-2 series lead and two games to clinch its first American League pennant since 2016. A loss, however, would leave the Guardians facing elimination on the road Monday night.
Cleveland has already shown resilience this postseason, overcoming a 2-0 deficit against Chicago to advance to the ALCS. But with Rasmussen on the mound and Tampa Bay carrying momentum from Saturday's victory, the Guardians face another difficult challenge.
Game Information
| Who | Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians |
| When | Sunday, Oct. 18, 2026, at 5:08 p.m. ET |
| Where | Progressive Field — Cleveland, Ohio |
| Series | ALCS Game 5 — Tied 2-2 |
| Cleveland Starter | Parker Messick (LHP, 12-9, 2.56 ERA regular season) |
| Tampa Bay Starter | Drew Rasmussen (RHP, 16-5, 2.67 ERA regular season) |
| Television | TBS / truTV |
| Streaming | HBO Max |
| Radio | WTAM 1100 / WMMS 100.7 / Guardians Radio Network |
| Game Eats | DoorDash | Grubhub |
Notes
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The ALCS is tied 2-2 after Tampa Bay's 7-3 victory Saturday night.
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Messick went 12-9 with a 2.56 ERA during the regular season but is 0-2 with a 3.09 ERA in the postseason.
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Rasmussen finished the regular season 16-5 with a 2.67 ERA and enters Game 5 with a 1.29 postseason ERA.
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Tampa Bay won five of six regular-season meetings against Cleveland.
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Travis Bazzana hit his first postseason home run in Saturday's loss.
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The Guardians have not reached the World Series since 2016.
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Game 6 is scheduled for Monday, October 19, at 8:08 p.m. ET at Tropicana Field, with Game 7 scheduled for Tuesday at 8:08 p.m. if necessary.
Prediction
Saturday's loss was disappointing, but I still like Cleveland's chances in this series, and I expect the Guardians to bounce back in Game 5.
Messick hasn't been as sharp in the postseason as he was during the regular season, but he's more than capable of delivering a clutch, quality start. The Guardians need him to work deeper into the game and keep Tampa Bay from putting together the kind of big innings that doomed Cleveland on Saturday.
Rasmussen will be hard to solve, but I expect the Guardians to find ways to manufacture runs. Ramírez is due for a big game, and Cleveland has already demonstrated throughout this postseason that it doesn't need to hit three or four home runs to win.
The formula that got the Guardians this far has been pretty simple: good pitching, timely hitting, and making the most of their opportunities. I expect them to get back to that Sunday.
Messick delivers a strong performance, the bullpen takes care of business, and the offense comes through with a few big hits to give Cleveland a 3-2 lead in the series.
Cleveland 4, Tampa Bay 2
