CLEVELAND — We already know the history.
The Guardians and White Sox spent the entire summer fighting over the AL Central, Chicago won seven of their 13 meetings, but Cleveland ultimately finished one game ahead to earn the division title and a first-round bye.
Now it is time to talk about what actually happens when they take the field Saturday.
Cleveland enters the American League Division Series with its two best starting pitchers rested and ready, while Chicago comes in after sweeping Houston in the Wild Card round. The Guardians know who will take the ball in Games 1 and 2. The White Sox, at least as of this morning, still had not announced their Game 1 starter.
The Pitching Matchups
Parker Messick will start Game 1 Saturday at Progressive Field after putting together one of the best rookie seasons in baseball.
The 25-year-old left-hander finished 12-9 with a 2.56 ERA and 193 strikeouts over 186? innings. He was particularly effective against Chicago, posting a 2.81 ERA with 29 strikeouts and only five walks across four starts.
Messick will also be working on normal rest if Cleveland needs him again in Game 4.
Gavin Williams gets Game 2 Monday after finishing 14-8 with a 3.76 ERA and an American League-leading 248 strikeouts over 184? innings. Williams faced the White Sox four times this season, posting a 3.98 ERA with 28 strikeouts in 20? innings.
One important wrinkle is where his second start would come. If the series reaches a deciding Game 5, Williams would be lined up to pitch it at Progressive Field, where he posted a 2.84 ERA this season compared with 5.05 on the road.
Game 3 remains the biggest question for Cleveland.
Daniel Espino could potentially work as an opener ahead of Joey Cantillo, a pairing the Guardians used late in the season. Tanner Bibee and Foster Griffin are also possibilities, and Stephen Vogt has indicated the decision could depend on how heavily Cleveland uses those pitchers in the first two games.
Chicago’s plan is even less settled.
Davis Martin is one candidate for Game 1 after Anthony Kay and Erick Fedde both pitched Wednesday in Houston. Martin faced Cleveland three times this season, including two starts, and posted a 3.72 ERA over 9? innings.
But the White Sox used an opener 31 times this season, the most in baseball, so Will Venable may decide to piece the game together rather than use a traditional starter.
That gives Cleveland one clear early advantage: the Guardians know exactly how they want to begin the series. Chicago is still sorting through its options.
The Guardians Lineup
The Guardians’ lineup begins with Steven Kwan and José Ramírez, but the biggest difference from previous Cleveland postseason teams is the amount of depth behind them.
Chase DeLauter and Jo Adell give the middle of the order legitimate power, while Travis Bazzana has become another important left-handed bat. Nathaniel Lowe provides experience at first base, and Angel Martínez and Brayan Rocchio help extend the lineup toward the bottom.
A projected lineup against a right-handed starter could feature Kwan, Ramírez, DeLauter, Adell, Bazzana, Lowe, Martínez, Austin Hedges, and Rocchio.
There are still several moving parts.
If Chicago starts a left-hander, David Fry could enter the lineup, particularly at first base. Cleveland can also rotate DeLauter and Adell between right field and designated hitter depending on matchups.
Catching will likely follow the rotation. Hedges has typically worked with Messick, while Patrick Bailey has usually caught Williams.
The Guardians were better offensively against right-handed pitching this season, posting a .706 OPS compared with .675 against lefties, so Chicago’s ability to create favorable matchups with its pitching staff could become important quickly.
The White Sox Lineup
Chicago’s lineup presents a different problem because of its ability to mix left- and right-handed hitters.
Sam Antonacci, Kyle Teel, and Munetaka Murakami are expected to be near the top of the order, with Miguel Vargas, Chase Meidroth, Colson Montgomery, Tristan Peters, and Braden Montgomery providing depth behind them.
Randal Grichuk could become particularly important in Game 1.
With the left-handed Messick starting for Cleveland, Chicago could insert the veteran at designated hitter to add another right-handed bat. The White Sox have leaned toward more right-handed-heavy lineups against left-handed pitching throughout the season.
That chess match will continue throughout the series because Cleveland can counter with several different looks out of its bullpen.
The Bullpens
If the regular season was any indication, there probably will not be many comfortable late innings in this series.
For Cleveland, everything eventually leads to Cade Smith.
Smith finished with a 1.95 ERA and 41 saves, tying for the Major League lead. He also struck out 107 batters in 74 innings and gives the Guardians one of the best ninth-inning options in baseball.
The setup picture is a little more complicated.
Hunter Gaddis, Erik Sabrowski, Tim Herrin, Matt Festa, Shawn Armstrong, and potentially some of Cleveland’s starting options could all be used before Smith. One arm Cleveland will not have is Colin Holderman, who announced Thursday that he will undergo surgery on his troublesome right wrist and will miss the postseason.
That removes one of Cleveland’s more reliable high-leverage relievers from the equation and puts even more importance on how Vogt manages the middle and late innings.
Chicago also enters the series with a deep bullpen.
Grant Taylor should be available after throwing 54 pitches in Tuesday’s Wild Card opener and sitting out Wednesday. Hagen Smith and Noah Schultz give the White Sox additional power arms, and Chicago’s willingness to use pitchers in unconventional roles makes predicting exactly how Venable will deploy them difficult.
What Will Decide the Series
For Cleveland, the formula is not complicated.
Messick and Williams have to give the Guardians quality starts. Kwan and Ramírez need help from the middle of the order. And Cleveland has to get enough outs before the ninth inning to put the ball in Smith’s hands with a lead.
The Guardians earned the luxury of resting their pitching staff by winning the division. Chicago earned momentum by immediately sweeping Houston.
Now we get to find out which matters more.
Unlike yesterday’s story, there is no need to spend much time explaining how these teams got here. They already know each other.
This one is about who executes better and makes the fewest mistakes.
Series Schedule
Game 1: Saturday, Oct. 3 — 1 p.m. ET, Progressive Field
Pitching: Parker Messick vs. TBA
Game 2: Monday, Oct. 5 — 5 p.m. ET, Progressive Field
Pitching: Gavin Williams vs. TBA
Game 3: Wednesday, Oct. 7 — 4 p.m. ET, Rate Field
Pitching: TBA vs. TBA
Game 4: Thursday, Oct. 8 — 5 p.m. ET, Rate Field, if necessary
Pitching: TBA vs. TBA
Game 5: Saturday, Oct. 10 — 5 p.m. ET, Progressive Field, if necessary
Pitching: TBA vs. TBA
