COLUMBUS — Ohio State's hopes of winning another national championship took a major hit when quarterback Julian Sayin suffered an injury to his throwing arm against Indiana. But while losing their starting quarterback changes the Buckeyes' outlook, it doesn't necessarily end their championship hopes.
Ohio State enters its bye week at 6-1, with five regular-season games remaining. The Buckeyes are still in position to compete for a Big Ten championship and a College Football Playoff berth, but they'll have to find a different way to win.
Whether Luke Fahey or Tavien St. Clair takes over at quarterback, expecting either to immediately replace Sayin's production would be unrealistic. Both are talented, but neither has meaningful experience leading Ohio State's offense.
If the Buckeyes are going to make a championship run, the rest of the team will have to help carry the offense until their new quarterback is ready to take on a larger role.
Three things will determine whether that happens.
1. The Defense Must Continue to Improve and Lead the Team
Ohio State's defense has shown improvement throughout the season. After allowing 24 points against Texas and 19 against Illinois, the Buckeyes held Iowa to 14 points, Maryland to 16, and Indiana to 15.
Against Indiana, Ohio State allowed just 73 rushing yards on 29 attempts and forced two turnovers. Although the Hoosiers threw for 296 yards, the Buckeyes kept them out of the end zone for much of the afternoon and played a major role in securing the 19-15 victory.
That kind of performance will need to become the standard from here on out.
Defensive coordinator Matt Patricia has a talented group capable of disrupting opposing offenses, and Ohio State needs that unit to become the foundation of the team. Limiting explosive plays, creating turnovers, and getting off the field on third down will be especially important while the offense adjusts.
The Buckeyes don't necessarily need to shut out opponents every week. They do, however, need to keep games manageable and avoid putting their inexperienced quarterback in situations where he must repeatedly lead scoring drives just to keep Ohio State within reach.
For the immediate future, the defense needs to be the strongest part of this team.
2. The Running Game Must Become the Offense's Foundation
Ohio State has talented running backs, but its rushing attack hasn't consistently matched the production of its passing game.
The Buckeyes are averaging 4.0 yards per carry this season, and their struggles were particularly noticeable against Indiana. Ohio State managed just 78 rushing yards on 37 attempts, an average of 2.1 yards per carry.
That needs to change.
With Sayin unavailable, establishing a reliable rushing attack becomes even more important. Running the ball effectively would take pressure off Fahey or St. Clair by creating manageable third downs and allowing offensive coordinator Arthur Smith to use play-action passes.
It would also help Ohio State control possession and reduce the number of opportunities opposing offenses have to score.
And it's not going to be any easier with Ja'Kobi Jackson recovering from foot surgery. Jackson had rushed for 354 yards and six touchdowns before his injury, leaving Bo Jackson and the remaining backs with additional responsibility.
The offensive line must also improve. Ohio State needs more consistent blocking at the point of attack and fewer plays that leave the offense facing second-and-long or third-and-long situations.
A dependable running game won't eliminate the need for productive quarterback play, but it can make the transition much easier. If Ohio State can consistently move the ball on the ground, its young quarterback won't have to carry the offense on every possession.
3. The New Quarterback Must Improve Every Week
Perhaps the most important part of Ohio State's remaining season will be the development of whichever quarterback Ryan Day chooses to start.
Fahey entered the Indiana game after Sayin was injured, but Day has said both Fahey and St. Clair will receive first-team practice opportunities during the bye week. The competition gives Ohio State an opportunity to evaluate both players before its October 31 matchup against USC.
Whoever wins the job won't have the luxury of a long adjustment period.
The Buckeyes face USC and Oregon in consecutive weeks before finishing the regular season against Northwestern, Nebraska, and Michigan. That's a difficult schedule for an inexperienced quarterback, but it also provides opportunities to improve against quality competition.
Early on, Ohio State should emphasize protecting the football, making good decisions, and completing manageable throws. Think Sayin against Texas his first game as starter. There's no reason to expect the new starter to run the entire offense at the same level Sayin did right out of the gate.
As the weeks progress, however, the quarterback must become more comfortable reading defenses, handling pressure, and making plays when the running game isn't enough. Make no mistake, at some point, the quarterback will have to make a play.
By the time Michigan comes to Columbus on November 28, Ohio State needs a quarterback who has grown beyond simply managing the offense. He doesn't have to be Sayin, but he must be capable of making big-time throws when it matters and helping the Buckeyes win when the competition gets tougher.
The Team Must Elevate Its Play Until the Quarterback Can Elevate His
Ohio State still has enough talent to compete with the best teams in college football. Jeremiah Smith remains the best player in the country, the defense continues to improve, and the Buckeyes have a coaching staff with experience navigating championship expectations.
But the margin for error has become smaller.
The defense must be great, the running game must become more dependable, and the new quarterback must make steady progress. Those three things will have to happen together if Ohio State wants to make another serious playoff run.
For now, the Buckeyes cannot expect their quarterback to carry the team. The team must elevate its play until the quarterback is ready to elevate his.
What's Next
Ohio State returns from its bye week Saturday, October 31, when it travels to Los Angeles to face USC. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC.
