Winter is coming to the AFC North.
For nearly two decades, John Harbaugh and Mike Tomlin were as much a part of the division as cold weather, low-scoring games and divisional matchups that occasionally resembled bar fights. Now, both are gone. Jesse Minter replaces Harbaugh in Baltimore, and Mike McCarthy returns home to Pittsburgh to succeed Tomlin. Cleveland also made a change, hiring former Ravens offensive coordinator Todd Monken after moving on from Kevin Stefanski.
That leaves Cincinnati’s Zac Taylor as the only returning head coach in the division. In a year filled with new systems, new voices and plenty of uncertainty, that continuity could matter. Of course, having Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins should help, too.
Cincinnati Bengals: Last Season 6-11
The Bengals enter 2026 with the best quarterback and receiving combination in the division. Burrow missed nine games with turf toe last season, but a healthy version of Cincinnati’s franchise quarterback immediately transforms the Bengals from a six-win disappointment into a legitimate contender.
Burrow will once again have Chase and Higgins on the outside, with Chase Brown solidified as RB1 after his first 1,000-yard rushing season. Better yet, all five starters return along an offensive line that quietly took a step forward last year. Cincinnati allowed 36 sacks, its fewest since Burrow’s rookie season, and should benefit from having the same group back together.
The question, as it has been for several years, is whether the defense can stop anyone. Cincinnati allowed 492 points last season and has lost seven games over the past two years despite scoring at least 30. The front office responded by adding Dexter Lawrence II, Jonathan Allen, Boye Mafe and Bryan Cook. There is considerably more talent on that side of the ball, but talent on paper doesn't stop Lamar Jackson on 4th-and-2. It will need to gel as a unit first, and I do think that may take a few games. So, don't be surprised if they struggle a bit at first.
But, no matter how long it takes the defense to become the best version of itself, if the rebuilt unit can simply become average, Burrow and the offense should handle the rest and make Cincinnati a contender not only for the AFC North, but to hoist its first Lombardi Trophy.
Baltimore Ravens: Last Season 8-9
Baltimore’s disappointing 2025 season still ended with a positive point differential, and the Ravens came within a missed field goal of winning the division. That makes their 8-9 record feel less like a true measurement of the roster and more like the result of a season filled with a series of unfortunate events.
The Ravens remain dangerous because Lamar Jackson remains Lamar Jackson. When healthy, he is as dangerous a player as there is in the NFL. Baltimore also returns Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews, giving Minter and Jackson more than enough talent to move the ball.
The concern is what happens in front of Jackson. Tyler Linderbaum left in free agency, Danny Pinter suffered a season-ending injury and Jovaughn Gwyn will open the season at center despite never starting an NFL game. Baltimore will also start rookie Vega Ioane at right guard, leaving the Ravens vulnerable against the type of powerful defensive fronts they will regularly see within the division. Much like the Browns in the prediction below, don’t be surprised to see Baltimore improve as the year progresses.
Defensively, Kyle Hamilton and Roquan Smith remain two of the league’s best at their respective positions, while Nnamdi Madubuike’s return should strengthen the interior. The addition of Trey Hendrickson gives Baltimore another proven pass rusher. This is still a very good roster, but the offensive line could be the difference between winning the North and settling for a wild-card spot. The faster that line comes together, the sooner the Ravens can join the Bengals as contenders for more than just a division title.
Cleveland Browns: Last Season 5-12
The Browns begin the Todd Monken era with the same question that has followed them for years: What are they going to get from the quarterback position?
Deshaun Watson won the starting job after missing all of last season while recovering from two Achilles injuries. His preseason performance did little to quiet the skepticism, and Shedeur Sanders will remain in the background if Cleveland’s offense struggles early.
Watson will not be the only new piece trying to find his footing. The Browns will open the season with five new starters on the offensive line, while rookie receivers KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston will be asked to provide immediate help in the passing game. That much turnover could make the early portion of the season ugly.
Cleveland’s defense should keep the team competitive, even after trading Myles Garrett to the Los Angeles Rams. Jared Verse, acquired in the Garrett deal, gives the Browns a young cornerstone off the edge, while Carson Schwesinger will try to build on his Defensive Rookie of the Year campaign. Mason Graham provides additional strength along the defensive line, while Denzel Ward and Tyson Campbell give Cleveland elite secondary play.
The Browns may not look good early, but the roster has enough young talent to improve as the season moves along. If the offensive line settles in and Sanders eventually gets an opportunity, Cleveland could be a much more difficult opponent during the second half than it is in September.
And much like the Ravens, the faster the offensive line comes together, the better. The caveat is that, at the end of the day, the Browns still need a quarterback who can consistently move the chains and put points on the board. They needn’t become Cincinnati’s offense—just as Cincinnati’s defense needn’t become Cleveland’s—but they must play complementary football and maximize what should once again be an elite defensive unit.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Last Season 10-7
Pittsburgh won the AFC North last season, but no team in the division feels more likely to move backward.
McCarthy takes over for Tomlin and reunites with Aaron Rodgers, who returned for another season after helping Pittsburgh reach the playoffs in 2025. The Steelers added Michael Pittman Jr., rookie receiver Germie Bernard and running back Rico Dowdle in an effort to give Rodgers more help.
There is still talent here, especially on defense. T.J. Watt remains one of the most disruptive players in football, while Jalen Ramsey and Cameron Heyward give Pittsburgh accomplished veterans at every level.
The problem is that this roster is old in many of its most important places. Rodgers, Watt, Ramsey and Heyward are all on the wrong side of 30, and Pittsburgh is installing new systems on both sides of the ball. Although their experience should mitigate some of the growing pains, it is still a lot of transition for a team that won several close games last season and finished with only a plus-10 point differential.
Pittsburgh may remain competitive because that is simply what the Steelers do. They are always tough to play. But eventually, age, turnover and years of narrowly escaping mediocrity catch up with everyone.
This year, they catch up with Pittsburgh.
Final Prediction:
Cincinnati is the most complete team in the division if Burrow stays healthy and the rebuilt defense improves. Those are, of course huge "ifs", but the Bengals defense does not need to become the 1985 Bears. They only need to stop wasting 30-point performances by the offense.
Baltimore will remain close throughout the season and could easily win the division if its rebuilt interior offensive line comes together in a timely manner. The Ravens’ recent success offers a glimpse of what the Browns could become if Cleveland ever settles its quarterback problem: an organization capable of carrying elite defense wherever it goes with a complimentary, and at times explosive, offense. But, in this case, the Ravens combine that defense with Lamar Jackson. And with that combination, Baltimore has more than enough talent to make a run and beat anyone.
Cleveland will struggle early as Monken installs his system and the new offensive line learns to play together. The Browns should improve during the second half, however, allowing them to climb past a Pittsburgh team entering an overdue transition.
Winter is coming. When it arrives, Cincinnati should be the last team standing, with Joe Burrow supplanting Lamar Jackson as King in the North.
Final AFC North Standings:
- Cincinnati Bengals: 12-5
- Baltimore Ravens: 11-6
- Cleveland Browns: 7-10
- Pittsburgh Steelers: 6-11
